Academy Awards 2021: Favorites to Win an Oscar

The 93rd annual Academy Awards are just around the bend.

Hard to believe, right?

Today let’s look at a few of the biggest categories for the current odds to win as well as a bit of historical data as well:

  • Best Actor in a Leading Role
  • Best Actress in a Leading Role
  • Best Picture

Best Male in A Leading Role

One of the biggest Oscars each year is the award given out for best male in a leading role. This year, the front-runners for a nomination in this category are:

  1. Anthony Hopkins | The Father
  2. Riz Ahmed | Sound Of Metal
  3. Delroy Lindo | Da 5 Bloods
  4. Steven Yuen | Minari
  5. Gary Oldman | Mank
  6. John David Washington | Malcolm & Marie
  7. Kingsley Ben-Adir | One Night In Miami
  8. Tom Hanks | News Of The World
  9. Lakeith Stanfield | Judas And The Black Messiah
  10. Ben Affleck | The Way Back
  11. George Clooney | The Midnight Sky
  12. Robert Pattinson | Tenet
  13. Bill Murray | On The Rocks

We can found among the best sportsbooks that have Oscars odds with Anthony Hopkins as a massive favorite at -3000 a couple of months ago. Since then, things have evened out some, with Hopkins still near the front of the pack. But odds hovering around +350. Now, Chadwick Boseman is the clear favorite at -350. He’s followed by Hopkins at +350, then Riz Ahmed +700, Steven Yeun at +1000, Delroy Lindo at +1000, and Gary Oldman at +1200.

Can we consider Gary Oldman out since he won for Darkest Hour in 2017? 

It’s not easy to type-cast an Oscar winner. Last year it was Joaquin Phoenix for his amazing portrayal of the Joker. In 2018 we saw Ramo Malek win for his role as Freddie Mercury. Before that, it was Gary Oldman. Then in 2016, Casey Affleck won for Manchester by the Sea. 

Best Female in a Leading Role

I think many expect Francis McDormand to win the category of Best Actress. She was the odds-on favorite for quite a while, but Viola Davis is the new favorite at +150. Francis McDormand is the next biggest favorite still (+300), and Carey Mulligan follows her for her role in Promising Young Woman at +350. Vanessa Kirby is sitting at +500 for Pieces of a Woman. Sophia Loren is +600 for The Life Ahead, and finally, Andra Day is +800 for The United States vs. Billy Holiday.

Best Picture

Nomadland is still the No. 1 option to win Best Picture. There are odds on a couple of dozen films, but only eight will receive an official nomination. Here are the top six:

  • Nomadland +100 (even money)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 +600
  • Mank +600
  • One Night in Miami +1000
  • Da 5 Bloods +1200 News of the World +1200

I believe the Oscar for Best Actress will hinge upon the results of best picture. If the Academy selects Nomadland for Best Picture, then Viola Davis will likely win Best Actress. If Mank or the Trial of the Chicago 7 – both films have an excellent chance at winning– are voted in as Best Picture, then Francis McDormand is likely to take home the Oscar for Best Leading Female. 

There were a couple of other films as high as +2000 in January that are falling down the rung, such as, Soul. As much as I enjoyed the film, the Academy is still made up mostly of old men … So, they most likely won’t give a ‘cartoon’ the nod over some of these other ‘films’. For this reason, I don’t believe Soul will even get an official nomination for Best Picture.

My prediction for nominated films are:

  • Nomadland
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Mank
  • One Night in Miami Da 5 Bloods
  • News of the World
  • The Father
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Which one will win? I think it’s between Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mank, and The Father. Then again, if Hopkins wins Best Actor, I see it going one of the other three.

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